China is facing quite a predicament now. Overnight the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the coronavirus outbreak has reached “global emergency” levels. That makes it official folks; this is an actual big problem now.
The parameters of the situation are being refined every day. Your friendly Gold Enthusiast, who majored in mathematical modeling of business in his undergrad years, of course, loves numbers and models. According to the best online sources (WHO etc), the important numbers for this situation are incubation period 5 days (how long after you actually “catch” the virus before you show symptoms); a 34% rate of contracting the disease if you are a carrier; and a 2% chance of dying if you contract the disease. The R-zero number – how many people each carrier infects – is currently set at 2.2. Of course, all of these are estimates and are subject to change at any time.
Those are some hard numbers. A lifetime of working with models taught this grizzled head that numbers define or describe situations, but it’s the results of situations are what drive markets.
So what are the likely results, and that will affect the price of gold since that is the focus of The Gold Enthusiast writings? We can look at the changes happening, peer down the chain of related events, and see what outcomes we can discern.
One big change… Continue reading at ETF Daily News